The fault is along the east side of Californias San Francisco Bay and is among the most active and dangerous in the United States, because it runs through a densely urbanized and interconnected region. According to theU.S. Geological Survey and the Los Angeles Fire Department, the earthquake occurred at 2 a.m. PT. Now one quake prediction research firm warned that the next big one could be imminent. More than 4.5 million living in San Bernardino-Ontario and 10 million people in Los Angeles County are living near active or passive faults. 25 earthquakes in the past 30 days. So for a 7.8 earthquake, we would expect a 6.8 magnitude. At 7.5, the aftershock was more than 10 times stronger than the largest expected one. Most commonly youll see aftershocks on the fault that ruptured in the main earthquake or immediately adjacent to it, said William Barnhart, a researcher with the geological survey who is analyzing the Turkish quakes using radar data. Earthquake Prediction Issues and Concerns Social utility of earthquake prediction Possible negative consequences Generic questions for public policy Changes in the Time Parameters of Predictions PAGE vi i i ix II. Narrator: On July 4, 2019, Ridgecrest, California, was hit with a 6.4 magnitude earthquake and then a 7.1 just one day later. A highway collapsed in Los Angeles from the 1994 Northridge earthquake. But the worst damage was concentrated in relatively. This may be the best chance to prevent further injury in case of an aftershock. Yet, the last one struck in 1918. The San Andreas Fault system consists of many parallel, active fault strands with changeable rates of motion. According to The ShakeOut Scenario, a 7.8 earthquake hitting along the southern San Andreas fault on a non-windy day at about 9:00 a.m. will unfold, approximately, like this: 1,800 people will. Damage in San Francisco after the 1906 earthquake. (2.2 miles). Los Angeles earthquake risk encompasses ofover one hundred active faults that are ready to slip. A magnitude 4.2 earthquake shook Southern California early Wednesday, officials said. Best answer ever. The reporting region of the SCSN is shown enclosed in the orange polyon. When a reporter asked if the quake had been predicted, Tom calmly replied 'Not yet.' But a Times analysis in 2018 found that there were as many as 640 unreinforced masonry buildings in more than a dozen Inland Empire cities, including Riverside, Pomona and San Bernardino, that have been marked as dangerous but remained unretrofitted despite decades of warnings. The earthquake zones have much in common, with one long, major fault and scores of smaller, secondary ones. 26.2 km from Damage to homes? The company that got it just before Northridge hit was impressed," she recalled, referring to the magnitude 6.7 earthquake that struck the San Fernando Valley in 1994. The geological survey estimates that there is about a 30 percent chance of a 7.5-magnitude earthquake in the Los Angeles area in the next 30 years, and a 20 percent chance in the San. They included a magnitude 5.5 in Santa Monica Bay and a magnitude 6 in the Imperial Valley, near the Mexican border, Jones said. Port Hueneme That means the Santa Monica Bay quake, roughly 250 miles from the southernmost end of the ruptured San Andreas fault, would be considered an aftershock of the 1906 San Francisco quake. Sign up for our trending newsletter to get the latest news of the day. Main freeways to Las Vegas and Phoenix that cross the San Andreas fault would be destroyed. Here's what will happen if the big one hits the West Coast. For instance, the great 1906 earthquake ruptured a vast swath of the northern San Andreas fault, from Humboldt County near Eureka, through the San Francisco Bay Area and approaching San Benito County, east of Monterey. This means that there is about a 94% chance that any earthquake will NOT be a foreshock. The 4.2 magnitude earthquake was "too small to trigger the delivery of #ShakeAlert-powered alerts to cell phones," USGS ShakeAlert wrote on Twitter. This prediction most likely came from: geologist A scientist announces that the best possible chance for finding life on other bodies within our solar system would be on Jupiter's moon Europa. Casa Conejo For the best choice of CEA earthquake insurance policies,select deductibles from 5%-25%.CEA works with 25 residentialinsurance companies that serve the majority of California homeowners. This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. Epicenter at 34.026, -117.018 Without residential earthquake insurance you will be responsible for all repair and/or rebuilding costs. The 7.1 and 6.4 quakes were the largest to strike in twenty years. Typically, a Seismic hazard is the hazard associated with potential earthquakes in a particular area, and a seismic hazard map shows the relative hazards in different areas. Epicenter at 34.443, -119.0 Determining your risk with regard to earthquakes, or more precisely shaking from earthquakes, isn't as simple as finding the nearest fault. Secure .gov websites use HTTPS at 21:08 February 13, 2023 UTC, Location: The peak accelerations from the Northridge earthquake were much larger (e.g. The survey would "be conducted from the ground, air and sea," the LAFD said. The Bay Area native is a graduate of UC Berkeley and started at the Los Angeles Times in 2004. Wednesday's earthquake jolted some Southern Californians awake in the early morning. What is a seismic hazard map? The San Andreas fault is capable of magnitude 7.8 earthquakes. Learn more about major faults, capable of causing extensive ground shaking: The shaking from a major earthquake can move almost everything inside your home. Greater Los Angeles Area, California has had: (M1.5 or greater) 1 earthquake in the past 24 hours. Wednesday weather updates:Winter storm forecast to reach East Coast after crossing the country. This event would cause substantial further damage throughout the San Gabriel Valley, perhaps increasing the financial losses and deaths by 20% to 30%, the U.S. Geological Survey said in the 2008 report. Are you ready for the big one? (8.2 miles), 2023-02-17 08:46:00 UTC The USGS has seismic hazard maps for the US, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico & U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam & Marianas and Samoa & Pacific Islands. Major utilities such as gas, power and cell service would likely be severely compromised. Palos Verdes Estates Homeowners Coverage Training Registration, CEA Residential Earthquake Damage Assessment (REDA) General Guidelines Training, CEA Residential Earthquake Damage Assessment (REDA) Engineering Guidelines Training, California Earthquake Risk Map & Faults By County, List of Notable and Major California Earthquakes, Mobilehomes & Manufactured Homes Coverages & Deductibles, What is the risk of an earthquake in Los Angeles. City data show that only two of L.A.s 1,337 brittle concrete buildings have received certificates of compliance showing they meet the standards of the retrofit law. How many quakes were there in California today? (8.2 miles), 2023-02-06 07:00:42 UTC An earthquake occurs when the stress from the force of the moving plate overcomes the friction causing the plate boundary edges, the fault, to stick. Map Information How do earthquakes get on these maps? Heres what could happen in Southern California if a large earthquake struck on the San Andreas fault. (8.2 miles), 2023-02-11 06:05:16 UTC 3.2 km from California has been working to improve seismic safety rules for vulnerable buildings. The East and North Anatolian and the San Andreas are all transform faults, products of the stresses that build at the boundary where one of the Earths large crustal plates slowly moves past another. A plausible magnitude 8.2 earthquake on the San Andreas fault involves the rupture of more than 300 miles of fault, from the Mexican border through Los Angeles County to Monterey County. The 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes were California's biggest in more than 20 years. Find out more about recent Southern California earthquakes. These occur because the movement in the first quake can increase stresses along nearby fault sections beyond their breaking point. 1.4 earthquake - 2km WSW of Anderson Springs, CA, on Thursday, March 2, 2023 at 23:23 GMT. at 10:32 February 09, 2023 UTC, Location: Distant sizable aftershocks have occurred in California before. Spirit pointed to a book I write predictions in implying this is an old prediction. Fontana The LAFD issued an alert to say that it was in "earthquake mode" early Wednesday noting that all 106 neighborhood fire stations would survey their districts for damage "examining all major areas of concern (transportation infrastructures, large places of assemblages, apartment buildings, power-lines, etc.).". Dr. Lucy Jones is answering questions about earthquakes from ABC7 viewers. Jones went on to define "postdiction" as "claiming a successful prediction after the quake occurs.". In the 1994 Northridge earthquake, about 200 soft-story buildings collapsed, including one apartment building in which 16 people died. Images in Turkey and Syria show countless toppled buildings. According to unpublished data gathered by MyShake, on September 19, 2020, during a 4.5-magnitude quake east of Los Angeles, ninety per cent of alerted users received their warning before the. Moreno Valley (1.2 miles), 2023-02-09 10:32:31 UTC The violent shaking from earthquakes can rupture the earth, trigger landslides and turn the surface of the earth to liquid. What is an earthquake swarm? Theres just not great way to know when exactly The Big One may come, according to seismologist Dr Lucy Jones. Rong-Gong Lin II is a Metro reporter based in San Francisco who specializes in covering statewide earthquake safety issues and the COVID-19 pandemic. NSF Org: . What is the difference between earthquake early warning, earthquake forecasts, earthquake probabilities, and earthquake prediction? Heres What That Means. Epicenter at 34.115, -117.458 Overall, the US Geological Survey says there are 31 and 20 per cent probabilities of an earthquake measuring magnitude 7.5, nearly Big One status, occurring in Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area, respectively. The Big One is a massive earthquake prediction by seismologists set to occur along the southern San Andreas Fault, in California, which would impact cities such as San Francisco, Los Angeles and . What is seismic hazard? It was shorter but more violent. 40-50% larger at distances less than 30 km)than . Location, time of day, building codes and other factors make a big difference. (Must be before the quake - postdictions don't count.) On Feb. 20, two weeks after the first Turkish quake, a 6.3-magnitude aftershock struck at the southwestern end of the earthquake zone, killing at least 8 people and further traumatizing residents. Some owners of soft-story buildings began receiving orders to retrofit in 2016, meaning they still have some time before the seven-year deadline passes. But California has experienced quakes of that magnitude and greater and scientists have spent years developing simulations of how The Big One would play out in the Golden State. The report, titled ShakeOut, estimates that quake would kill 1,800 people; rupture 966 roads, 21 railroads and 32 aqueducts; down 141 power lines; and damage 300,000 buildings. A magnitude 4.2 earthquake struck early Wednesday . A hospital collapsed in the Mediterranean coastal city of Iskanderoun, according to the Associated Press. at 13:18 February 23, 2023 UTC, Location: Learn about the smaller earthquakes impacting Northern California. 13.2 km from (Angelica Quintero and Maneeza Iqbal / Los Angeles Times), Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information, California hasnt seen a catastrophic earthquake recently. The event is a good reminder to be prepared for an earthquake. 15,700. On April 18, 1906, an earthquake and subsequent fires devastated San Francisco, California, leaving more than 3,000 people dead and destroying more than 28,000 buildings. Managed by the Governor's Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), Earthquake Warning California uses ground motion sensors from across the state to detect earthquakes before humans can feel them and can notify Californians to "Drop, Cover and Hold On" in advance of an earthquake. Simulations of huge quakes in California show how aftershocks can occur far from the mainshock. What's everyone talking about? Our insurance rates, based on the latest science and research, are determined by several factors including your homes age, location near a fault, foundation type, construction type, and roof type. Predicting when earthquakes are going to happen remains difficult, San Jose State University geologist Kimberly Blisniuk told the Los Angeles Times in March. One scenario includes a magnitude 6.4 earthquake in Cupertino, in the heart of Silicon Valley, more than five months after the mainshock, a USGS report said. But the Hayward fault in the East Bay also poses a major threat, experts say. Earthquake faults are huge cracks in the earth's surface that form a borderline between shifting tectonic plates. Muscoy The new model, referred to as the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or "UCERF3" ( http://www.WGCEP.org/UCERF3 ), provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and likelihood of earthquake fault rupture throughout the state. Retrospectively we can say, OK, the 7.8 stressed the fault on which the 7.5 occurred, he said. 421 earthquakes in the past 365 days. Match preview. Located 11 miles SSW of Trona on 2/28/23, 5:30 AM. at 19:24 March 01, 2023 UTC, Location: Epicenter at 34.458, -117.955 In Californias recent history there have only been two quakes as powerful as the first Turkish one the 7.9-magnitude San Francisco earthquake in 1906, and the Fort Tejon quake of 1857, which had a similar estimated magnitude and affected an area from the central part of the state southward to the east of Los Angeles. This includes blind thrust faults, like the quake along the Raymond fault that destroyed homes in Northridge in 1994. But I wouldnt have put any money on that being the next to go.. The quake's center was about 10 miles south of Malibu Beach, USGS ShakeAlertreported. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. CEA earthquake insurance is easy to buy. Discover the peace of mind with the smart financial decision to buy earthquake insurance in Los Angeles. Experts say a 7.8 earthquake in Southern California could have a death toll among the worst for a natural . Probabilities and forecasts are comparable to climate probabilities and weather forecasts, while predictions are more like statements of when, where, and how large, which is not yet possible for earthquakes. Keep your family safe and prevent the injury of your loved ones by being prepared. Theres a crack in my wall from the violence of it, Garnes said. There is no question that were going to learn an enormous amount from the Turkish quakes, said Ross Stein, a seismologist formerly with the United States Geological Survey scientist and now a consultant. 4.2 km from Is it safe to go to X since they've been having a lot of earthquakes lately? 3.2 km from Things came out of the refrigerator. The USGS uses these four terms to refer to four different things. When most of us on the West Coast think about Los Angeles earthquakes, we think of the Southern San Andreas fault. Loma Linda Running Springs He also said the sequence of earthquakes in Turkey showed that it was difficult to forecast how one quake might affect another. Why Is Every Walmart In The Entire City Of Portland Being Permanently Shut Down? The Southern San Andreas fault is the longest fault in California, slicing through Los Angeles County along the north side of the San Gabriel Mountains. More than 6,000 homes lost power. 3.4. USGS names the prime Earth movers as the San Andreas Fault, the Calaveras Fault, and the Hayward Fault. SGT Report is your daily source for truth in a time of universal deceit. USGS has estimated that there is a Los Angeles earthquake probability of a 75% likelihood of one or more magnitude 7.5 or greater quakes striking in the next thirty years, as of 2014. Think about what could be thrown around or tipped over. How many times did a quake actually happen? Within the next 30 years the probability is: Learn More:Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast 3. The reason for a such a powerful aftershock has much to do with where it was located: on a separate fault from the first one. (4.2 miles), 2023-02-21 17:52:31 UTC In Southern California, the main strands are the Southern San Andreas fault, theSan Jacinto fault, and the Elsinore fault. Two have occurred twice in recent times: the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and one in 1857 in Southern California. On Dec. 20, a 6.4-magnitude earthquake also struck near Eureka. 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake. Nevertheless, in the 16 years since that publication there has not been a substantial quake in the Los Angeles area, and two major reports issued by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have made variable predictions as to the risk of future seismic events. Earthquake scientists say that a subsequent quake that is generated one ruptured fault length away from the mainshock can be considered an aftershock. This prediction most likely came from: a geologist A scientist announces that the best possible chance for finding life on other bodies within our solar system would be on Jupiter's moon Europa. (3.2 miles), 2023-02-08 03:38:27 UTC Los Angeles County could suffer the highest death toll, more than 1,000, followed by Orange County, with more than 350 dead. The National Weather Service issues an earthquake warning for Los Angeles, California. Find out about your homes earthquake risk with CEAs earthquake fault map by county. Dr. Barnhart said researchers would be looking at whether a quake on the main fault could result in a large aftershock similar to what happened in Turkey. To accomplish this goal, products and services provided by the National Geospatial Program (NGP) and Land Remote Sensing (LRS) Program serve as a geos, The Great Southern California ShakeOut was a week of special events featuring the largest earthquake drill in United States history. at 03:09 February 18, 2023 UTC, Location: Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replac, The HayWired earthquake scenario, led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), anticipates the impacts of a hypothetical magnitude-7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault. A quake as strong as magnitude 8.2 is possible on the southern San Andreas fault and would bring disaster to all of Southern California simultaneously, with the fault rupturing from near the Mexican border to Monterey County. The 5.4-magnitude quake was centered about 30 miles south of Eureka. This map shows the earthquake feed from the USGS for all earthquakes in the last 7 days with the network codes of CI, NC, or NN, or between the latitude coordinates 32 and 42 and the longitude coordinates -126 and -114. It also sparked reactions on social media including tweets from celebrities like SZA,Chance The Rapperand more. And scientists will likely be able to apply what they learn about that aftershock to the San Andreas. Search Earthquakes Near You ( Relative2Me ). While both past California earthquakes have been studied extensively, modern technology is allowing the Turkish quakes to be analyzed in elaborate detail, practically in real time, using ground-based seismic sensors, satellite-borne radar and other instruments. Epicenter at 34.216, -117.417 1.2 km from But recent quakes striking California, including clusters of low-level tremors in Southern California in June and a swarm in April, dont seem likely to increase the chances of this disaster, which experts believe could cause 1,800 deaths and a $200bn bill when it finally strikes. at 18:25 February 25, 2023 UTC, Location: Deep Earthquake Rattles Much Of Southern California. On Oct. 21, 1868, a powerful earthquake shook the fog-shrouded San Francisco Bay Area for more than 40 seconds. 7.2 km from San Fernando What is the probability that an earthquake is a foreshock to a larger earthquake? How will my house hold up in an earthquake? Nostradamus predicted many terrible things would happen on earth, including a zombie apocalypse and a global famine, though the events don't necessarily state 2021 as the starting time. Epicenter at 34.251, -118.652 It's therefore plausible that a magnitude 8.2 earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault, rupturing from near the Mexican border, through Los Angeles County and ending in Monterey County,. Earthquake prediction has been a hope since the ground shifted beneath ancient peoples. >99%. Big quakes have devastated California cities and other metropolises around the world, causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage. But that might not leave L.A. in the clear. . Epicenter at 34.301, -117.032 All large earthquakes are followed over days, months and even years by aftershocks, which often number in the thousands. But on average, a quake of magnitude 6.0 or larger is likely to hit somewhere in Southern California every few years. Bradbury The expected frequency of such events statewide has dropped from an average of one per 4.8 years to about one per 6.3 years. Fontana In Southern California, the main strands are the Southern San Andreas Fault, theSan Jacinto Fault, and the Elsinore Fault. Strongest earthquake in the past 24 hours. Cities such as Santa Monica, West Hollywood, Culver City, Beverly Hills and Pasadena now have laws requiring soft-story buildings to be retrofitted. Evidence shows that the San Andreas, San Jacinto and Hayward faults should produce a major earthquake roughly three or four times per century (Biasi and Scherer, 2019). Such a quake would be so powerful that it causes widespread damage and consequently affects lives and livelihoods of all southern Californians, a report says. Effects & damage of a major Los Angeles earthquake, Earthquakes shake Coachella Valley during lunar eclipse, CEA targets $275m Ursa Re II 2022 California quake catastrophe bond, Lori Dengler: Seismographs arent the only instruments to measure earthquakes, 1906 San Francisco Earthquake Anniversary Serves As Reminder To Be Prepared For Next Big One. If we get the bigger rupture, and it extends north to Parkfield [in Monterey County] then all of the Bay Areas within one fault length, Jones said. Without Loss of Use earthquake coveragewhich includes covering your additional expenses of living elsewhere due to earthquake damageyoud still be paying your mortgage plus temporary housing rent during the time repairs are underway. Contact 211 for less urgent matters. Disruptions in water, electricity and communications could last weeks. That may help them better understand the potential strength and location of future quakes in California. Im surprise we havent had it yet we average 150 years between San Andreas events and its been 350 on the southernmost part, she wrote on Twitter in May. What did Disney actually lose from its Florida battle with DeSantis? 1.2 km from 6.2 km from Map Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) Los Angeles has a 31 percent chance within the next 30 years of experiencing a magnitude-7.5 earthquake, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Can the National Seismic Hazard Maps be used as an earthquake forecast tool for the near future? It's not an earthquake. This of course translates into a massive 9.8 earthquake in California on May 28 at roughly 4 p.m. As skeptical as we may be, he did (sort of) predict the rise and fall of Hitler and the 9/11 . CTRL + SPACE for auto-complete. How are they made? 2.2 km from For all the devastation of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, it was centered off the coast in the Pacific Ocean. How likely is Big One earthquake to hit after recent LA tremors? The great 1906 earthquake, best known for destroying much of San Francisco, also triggered quakes much farther away on the same day, said seismologist Lucy Jones, a research associate at Caltech. The existence of the San Andreas fault was brought intensely to world attention in 1906 when abrupt displacement along the fault produced the great earthquake and fire in San Francisco. The time between big quakes seems to be Poissonian - that means the time since the last quake doesnt matter., Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies. Yorba Linda A California earthquake welcomed the residents of Los Angeles to St. Patrick's Day this morning. California. Epicenter at 33.801, -118.364 Many people in LA Countyfeel shaking from earthquakes a couple times a year, most mild or moderate with little damage. Is La Earthquake Prediction True or Fake? The San Andreas fault is one of the best studied faults in the world, and theres still so much we can do, she said. If a big quake hits during the pandemic, will we be prepared? ", LA County sheriff's recruits graduate months after Whittier crash, Highways into the San Bernardino Mountains are closed to drivers, LA County passes motion requiring retrofit of some buildings by 2033. A catastrophe is a disaster that runs amok when a society is not prepared for the amount of disruption that occurs, the report said. (5.2 miles), 2023-02-18 03:09:03 UTC LOS ANGELES (KABC) -- A warning about a purported earthquake that was "likely" to rock Southern California earlier this week gained just enough visibility to alarm some residents of the. Fillmore Copyright 2023 KABC Television, LLC. But its what everybody wants to know, adding, But just because we can create a plausible scenario does not mean its going to happen.. Then a visual of a large 3. 6.2 km from Preparation in areas near a fault are especially crucial. (7.2 miles), 2023-02-19 16:25:34 UTC A number of top-class players were part of the team in the past, but, no doubt, David Beckham is the club's most significant star. In Southern California, a magnitude 7.8 quake struck in 1857. "I watched a more senior scientist, Tom Heaton, talk to the press 2 hours after the quake. When the Big One hits, it will be 44 times stronger than the Northridge earthquake of 1994, which killed 72 people, injured 9,000, and caused $200 billion in damage. Although you may hear the terms seismic zone and seismic hazard zone used interchangeably, they really describe two slightly different things. at 04:33 February 23, 2023 UTC, Location: How do I decide whether or not to get earthquake insurance? Los Angeles newsroom shakes live on air as earthquake hits California, Please refresh the page or navigate to another page on the site to be automatically logged in, Please refresh your browser to be logged in, China mourns heroic Strong-Willed Pig that survived earthquake after it dies of old age, Earth Quake In Turkey: Teams bring in listening equipment, Watch US Navy trial causing earthquake after blasting 18 tonnes of explosives in Atlantic, Assam earthquake: Damage reported as magnitude 6.4 tremor hits northeast India. How do I get earthquake hazard maps for locations outside of the U.S.? JPL experts predict a possible 5.0 magnitude quake in Los Angeles, but say it very well could be stronger. Look up: The 32 most spectacular ceilings in Los Angeles, This fabled orchid breeder loves to chat just not about Trader Joes orchids, Newsom, IRS give Californians until October to file tax returns, Best coffee city in the world? 9.2 km from There is a 60% chance of an Earthquake with a magnitude of 6.7; There is a 46% chance of an earthquake measuring 7 in magnitude; And there is 31% of an Earthquake with 7.5 magnitudes occurring in the Los Angeles region within the next 30 years. It is possible that when the next Los Angeles earthquake strikes, 270,000 people could be displaced. A magnitude 7.8 earthquake would be so powerful that it causes widespread damage and consequently affects lives and livelihoods of all southern Californians. The mega-quakes in Turkey this week showcase how a magnitude 7.8 quake could trigger a magnitude 7.5 aftershock on a different fault, with 60 miles of distance between the epicenters. The services DOC provides are designed to balance today's needs with tomorrow's obligations by fostering the wise use and conservation of energy, land and mineral resources. Learn about the smaller earthquakes impacting Northern California. (2.2 miles), 2023-02-24 03:01:39 UTC In Northern California, San Francisco, Berkeley and Oakland have such laws on the books as well. Here is a closer look at the risks from the pages of The Times: Disruptions from a major quake would be serious and long-lasting. Dr. Hubbard said the secondary faults she would be worried about triggering, though, would be those that are closer to Los Angeles, similar to one that caused the 1994 Northridge earthquake in the San Fernando Valley. The 2019 Ridgecrest earthquakes that hit Southern California were felt as far away as Las Vegas and Arizona. But the 7.5 aftershock that occurred soon after the first quake was unusual, Dr. Kilb said. The geological survey estimates that there is about a 30 percent chance of a 7.5-magnitude earthquake in the Los Angeles area in the next 30 years, and a 20 percent chance in the San Francisco Bay Area. Epicenter at 33.823, -117.484 Ever since, the North American plate has ground against the Pacific plate at a boundary called a strike-slip fault.