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The crew dives into four major investigations into former president Donald Trumps actions, the legal consequences he could be facing, and how the American public is reacting. The crew breaks down a poll that asked Americans to identify from good to evil and lawful to chaotic on the Dungeons and Dragons alignment chart. Upload your Podcast as an audio or video file to Type Studio in our menu. James Acton is a physicist and co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. We assess the state of American democracy, based on a new survey from Bright Line Watch, a group of political scientists that monitors threats to our democratic systems. Schwartz and McMenamin: 11/29/21. Tickets to the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast live show in Washington, DC on October 25th can be found here. As of Monday, all U.S. troops have withdrawn from Afghanistan following a chaotic evacuation from the country. As Emanuel Macron has occupied the middle of the political spectrum in France, with a focus on cooperation among European nations, the opposition parties have moved toward a nationalist, populist agenda. Election Day in Georgia is just a week away, so the crew shook off their turkey hangover to talk about what to expect in Georgias second Senate runoff in two years. Make sure you select the language your Podcast episode is recorded in when uploading your audio. Hours before we freeze the FiveThirtyEight midterm forecast tonight, it shows that Republicans are in a dead heat for the Senate and are favored to win the House. Tester faces a tough bid, but don't sleep on Brown being the weaker of the two. The State Of The Polls, 2016. From host Jody Avirgan (30 for 30, FiveThirtyEight, Radiotopia) and the TED Audio Collective, Good Sport is your guide through an array of stadiums, pitches, pools and slopes that shed a light on the ups and downs of being human. President Biden delivered his second State of the Union address on Tuesday to a newly divided Congress. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. They also check in on the results from two recent primary elections in Ohio and announce the launch of FiveThirtyEights Redistricting Tracker. We hear from two people involved in the progressive movement in New York City about their thoughts on whats happening in the race and how progressivism is shaping politics more broadly. 00:14:18 - Federal health agencies asked states to pause in their use of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine while U.S. officials investigate reports of an extre The idea of the celebrity politician isnt going away just because former President Trump is out of office. In light of new data showing union membership at its lowest point since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began counting, they also look at how that decline has shaped U.S. politics. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate and Galen discuss a recently published assessment of how our 2022 midterm forecast performed. The crew discusses the Senate passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, new polling on how Americans think about crime and gun violence, and how state-level debates over abortion bans are playing out. Welcome to Internet Archive TV News! Commentators and politicos have given lots of hot takes on why Democrats did so poorly in Tuesday's election and what it portends for the 2022 midterms. 0:00:00 As we discussed earlier this week, House Democrats plan on passing a one point nine trillion dollar American rescue plan by the end of the week. Thats Changing. It was a fiendishly clever and massively hyped invention. But that doesnt stop us from talking about what we do know: that Republicans didnt make major gains in the Senate, and that the polls were pretty good this cycle. apache saddles amarillo texas shockwave treatment for gallstones in the philippines price They also debate the usefulness of new polling on Americans superhero preferences by partisanship and preview the upcoming Jan. 6 hearings. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew discusses the results of the California gubernatorial recall election. The team looks at the popularity of the Democrats' COVID relief plan and how both Democrats and Republicans are thinking about its provisions. The crew looks at what Americans think about aid to Ukraine one year on, how the public may respond to Sen. John Fetterman's treatment for clinical depression and former President Trump's legal liability in a Fulton County investigation. In this late night edition of the podcast, the crew covers both the results of the Ohio Senate primary and the leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court that would overturn Roe v. Wade. Its October and the surprises are rolling in. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. The crew discusses why Bidens favorability is falling and how much Democrats should worry about it. Over the weekend, the White House announced that five more classified documents from the Obama administration were found at President Biden's Delaware home. Americans' political views oftentimes don't align neatly with a single party, but instead draw on both conservative and liberal positions. In the immediate aftermath of the Jan. 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, it appeared that Republican leaders might be ready to break ties with then-President Trump once and for all. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what to make of the divergence between the conventional wisdom that Republicans will do very well in the midterms and polling showing Democrats leading in numerous competitive Senate races. Listen to FiveThirtyEight Politics on Spotify. Nate and Galen discuss the latest twists in the midterms and answer listener questions in this installment of "Model Talk." fivethirtyeight podcast transcripts. Today those numbers have flipped. They also review Democrats agenda for the current lame duck session in Congress and hold their first post-midterm 2024 Democratic primary draft. In this installment, the crew discusses how any potential changes could reshape the nominating process. A bipartisan coalition of ten senators, with the support of President Biden, announced a $600 billion infrastructure plan last week. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. 266, the . They also reflect on how British and American politics changed during the period when "Brexit" and "Trump" dominated the two countries news cycles and consider their lasting impact. They also discuss the trend of amateur candidates running in and winning House primary elections, and ask whether Biden's dismissal of the polls is a "good or bad use of polling.". He has also reported audio documentaries at FiveThirtyEight, including the monthslong series "The Gerrymandering Project." His work has been heard on NPR, WNYC, On The Media, CBC, Wisconsin Public Radio and the University of Cambridge's ELECTION podcast. Our podcast helps listeners understand what they can be certain about, and what is still unknown. They also discuss moderate Senate Democrats' push to amend some of the provisions in the American Rescue plan and look at the politics and science behind the push to loosen covid-19 restrictions in states. They also talk about how the California recall election is shaping up after a recent poll showed increased support for recalling current Governor Gavin Newsom. Senior writer and legal reporter Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discusses how the Justices approached the question and what Americans think about abortion policy. Our tool analyzes your audio using Google voice recognition. The director of the Harvard Study of Adult Development -- the longest study of human life ever conducted -- concluded in a new book that close personal relationships are the "one crucial factor [that] stands out for the consistency and power of its ties to physical health, mental health and longevity." In this installment of Model Talk on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke are joined by two climate modelers and authors of the latest IPCC report, Friederike Otto and Baylor Fox-Kemper. They also consider why Republican senators' votes on convicting former President Donald Trump broke down the way they did. They also ask whether the US is in a recession, whether Andrew Yang's third party will succeed and how the DOJ's Jan. 6th investigation is affecting former President Trump. They also discuss ranked choice voting and the reasons for delays in New York City's final vote count in the mayoral election. In this installment of Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss the news events and polling that have contributed to that change. In her new book How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them, Barbara F Walter writes we are now closer to civil war than any of us would like to believe. In this installment of "Model Talk," Nate Silver and Galen Druke discuss what's behind the recent movement in the forecast and answer questions from listeners. The crew debates the value of polling whether Americans want Biden and Trump to run again in 2024. 1 min read; Jun 05, 2022; Bagikan : parade of homes matterport . File Upload. The crew analyzes new polling suggesting Americans support enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine and banning the purchase of Russian oil even if it increases gas prices. Local news is disappearing across the country. They also discuss the conditions that would have to be present in order for a third party to actually be viable in the American political system. If Europe, and of the shop leave us a rating or review in the Apple podcast store when you rating. FiveThirtyEight's political content often includes fact-driven statistical analysis. The book is the first big reported account of the 2020 campaign in its entirety and is written by Jonathan Allen, senior political analyst with NBC News, and Amie Parnes, senior correspondent for The Hill. PODCAST-19 brings you the latest evidence on the COVID-19 pandemic. Crime analyst Jeff Asher discussed what those numbers can -- and can't -- tell us, and explains the challenges in collecting crime data. American government is designed to have components that are not directly accountable to the public. They also preview next week's mayoral election in Chicago and ask whether a new poll of Arizona's 2024 Senate race is actually telling us anything useful.