Brown indicates where precipitation has been less than average; green is greater than average. During winter months, daytime temperatures may average 70 degrees F, with night temperatures often falling to freezing of slightly below in the lower desert valleys." Parts of the Southwest are also experiencing long-term reductions in mountain snowpack (see the Snowpack indicator), which accounts for a large portion of the regions water supply. Approximately 3.5 million years ago, glacial ice began to form over the Arctic Ocean and on the northern parts of North America and Eurasia. This chapter builds on assessments of climate change in the Southwest region from the three previous U.S. National Climate Assessments. Drought continues to be quite severe over the southern Plains in Texas and Oklahoma due to hot and dry conditions. These oases were fed by groundwater that originated in the higher country of what is now western Colorado. (Prescribed burns are an important forest management tool; they are used to consume fuels like dry wood that can ignite and feed wildfires as well as maintain forest health.) The climate remained warm, despite large southern ice sheets, but it had grown much drier. Photograph by "Cathy" (Flickr;Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommerical 2.0 Generic license). Smog (haze caused by air pollution) over Salt Lake City, Utah, 2016. We can see some hints of this relationship in my scatter-plot here. Lake Mead, the lake created by the Hoover Dam, at two points in time about 21 years apart. Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 09/30/2021 - 10:15, Science & information for a climate-smart nation. Unless otherwise indicated, text and images on this website have Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International licenses. A strong temperature difference at different heights creates instability. The reasons for this are complex and involve a combination factors. Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, Scenarios for Climate Assessment and Adaptation, Image by The High Fin Sperm Whale, created from images by NOAA National Weather Service training material (Wikimedia Commons, public domain), Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, Modified from a map by Adam Peterson (Wikimedia Commons, Photo by Bob Wick, Bureau of Land Management (flickr, public domain), Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported license, Photo by Richard Stephen Haynes (Wikimedia Commons, Photo of USNM PAL 165239 by Crinoid Type Project (Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, public domain), Photos of YPM IP 529539 by Jessica Utrup, 2015 (Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History/YPM, CC0 1.0 Universal/Public Domain Dedication, Photo of USNM P 38052 by Frederic Cochard (Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, public domain), Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license, Cretaceous Atlas of Ancient Life: Western Interior Seaway, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International, Photo of USNM 166396 from the Cretaceous Atlas of Ancient Life, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, Inset image from the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (PIA03397), Photo by Jeffrey Beall (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license, Photo by Kenneth Carpenter (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommerical 2.0 Generic license, Photo by Center for Land Use Interpretation, Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 license, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license, Photo by Dr. David Goodrich, NOAA (NOAA Photo Library ID wea04192, NOAA's National Weather Service, via flickr, Images by Lauren Dauphin, NASA Earth Observatory, Photos by Lauren Dauphin, NASA Earth Observatory, NASA Earth Observatory image by Lauren Dauphin (NASA Earth Observatory, Photo by Santa Fe National Forest (National Interagency Fire Center on flickr, public domain), https://earthathome.org/de/talk-about-climate/, https://earthathome.org/de/what-is-climate/, https://earthathome.org/de/recent-climate-change/, https://earthathome.org/de/climate-change-mitigation/, https://earthathome.org/de/climate-change-adaptation/, https://earthathome.org/quick-faqs/#climate, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International licenses. The daily range between maximum and minimum temperatures sometimes runs as much as 50 to 60 degrees F during the drier periods of the year. Northwestern Mexico receives upwards of 75% of its average annual precipitation from it, and Arizona and New Mexico more than 50%, during JulySeptember. The Palmer Index is calculated from precipitation and temperature measurements at weather stations, and has been used widely for many years. Average annual preciptiation for the southwestern U.S. Kppen climate map of the 48 contiguous states of the continental United States. Average temperatures found in the Southwest tend to decrease northward, which is largely the influence of latitude and elevation. Right (2):Crown of leaves from a mature plant. Pacific storms lose most of their moisture as they pass over the Rocky Mountains, so much of the Southwest's winter precipitation falls as snow within the areas mountainous regions. The Wave, a series of intersecting U-shaped troughs eroded into Jurassic NavajoSandstone within the Paria Canyon-Vermilion Cliffs Wilderness, Arizona. Sand dunes started to become widespread. In the latest Cretaceous, sea level dropped again and the western Southwest became a broad coastal plain that hosted lush forests, abundant dinosaurs, and large swamps. Photo by Bob Wick, Bureau of Land Management (flickr, public domain). Scientists first noted the seasonal rainfall patterns in the Southwest in the early 20th century, with the circulation pattern being understood as monsoonal by midcentury. Unfortunately, unpredictable winds spread the flames, which, combined with dry conditions, caused the Calf Canyon and Hermit Peak fires to grow beyond control. The satellite loop in this post shows Gulf of Mexico moisture moving west into the monsoon region. Map by NOAA(public domain) modified for the[emailprotected]project. PRI is a registered 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization. Raucous summer thunderstorms characteristic of the monsoon season are spotty, while drizzly winter storms last longer and engulf large portions of the region. Taken on August 15, 2016. 2021. Onion Creek salt diapir, a salt dome exposed at the surface at Fisher Towers, Utah. Snowpack helps keep the ground and soil moist by covering it longer into the spring and summer, which delays the onset of the fire season and influences the prevalence and severity of wildfires. Left photoandright photoby NPS/Michael Quinn (Grand Canyon National Park via flickr,Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, images cropped and resized). Before the Isthmus closed, the Atlantic and Pacific oceans were connected. Some of these thunderstorms can be strong, delivering heavy rain and frequent lightning. Data from the Northeast Regional Climate Center Applied Climate Information System; 2079-2099 image shows the weighted mean of downscaled CMIP5 models in the LOCA dataset. Glaciers in the Colorado Rockies are sustained largely by avalanches and wind-blown snow. Hey! Convective mixing forces the moisture in warm air to condense as it comes into contact with cool air, forming vapor (clouds) and precipitation (for example, rain or hail). Photo source:National Park Service (public domain). As the summer heat builds over North America, a region of high pressure forms over the U.S. Southwest, and the wind becomes more southerly, bringing moisture from the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of California. Digital Encyclopedia of Earth Science: Why talk about climate change? The onset of stream flows from melting snow in Colorado has shifted two weeks earlier due to warming spring temperatures. Map made by Elizabeth J. Hermsen usingSimplemapprand modified in Photoshop. Today nearly all the glaciers in the Southwest are gone, and the climate is in an arid state. Photo by Center for Land Use Interpretation(Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 license, image resized). Scattered pockets of drier, Mediterranean temperatures can also be found. The event devastated the Southwest, shifting a densely forested landscape to one primarily covered with fast-growing herbs and ferns. As of June 2022, it was more than 90% contained. However, the Southwest is located between the mid-latitude and subtropical atmospheric circulation regimes, and this positioning relative to shifts in these . A lock (LockA locked padlock) or https:// means youve safely connected to the .gov website. Reconstruction created using basemap from thePALEOMAP PaleoAtlas for GPlatesand the PaleoData Plotter Program, PALEOMAP Project by C. R. Scotese (2016); map annotations by Jonathan R. Hendricks & Elizabeth J. Hermsen for PRI's[emailprotected]project (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0license). Record high temperatures for the Southwest range from 53C (128F) in Arizona to 47C (117F) in Utah, while record low temperatures range from 56C (69F) in Utah to 40C (40F) in Arizona. In the Southwest, average precipitation ranges from only 34 centimeters (13.4 inches) in Utah to 39.9 centimeters (15.7 inches) in Colorado, which reflects the area's general aridity. Right:Graph of the lake's changing level over time. Andrews Glacier in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, at two points in time. Here at the ENSO Blog, were always curious about the role of ENSO (El Nio/Southern Oscillation, the entire El Nio/La Nia system). Download related technical information PDF, https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx, A Closer Look: Temperature and Drought in the Southwest. The Southwest is also definable, to an extent, by environmental conditions - primarily aridity. Most models predict a decrease in winter and spring precipitation by the middle of the century, and more frequent precipitation extremes during the last half of the century. Image adapted from an image by Scenarios for Climate Assessment and Adaptation, first published in The Teacher-Friendly Guide to the Earth Science of the Southwestern US. Convection occurs when buoyant warm air rises (moves up) while denser cool air sinks (moves down). Data for Figure 2 were provided by the National Drought Mitigation Center. Source:FEMA National Risk Index. Changes include formatting and revisions to the text and images. (2011)PLoS ONE3(7): e2791(Creative Commons Attribution license, image reorganized and resized). A value between -2 and -3 indicates moderate drought, -3 to -4 is severe drought, and -4 or below indicates extreme drought. The lack of moisture in the air allows heat trapped in the earth during daylight hours to rapidly radiate away, leading to cool evenings. Thus, even a small increase in temperature (which drives evaporation) or a decrease in precipitation in this already arid region can seriously threaten natural systems and society. Photo by Gregory Smith (flickr, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic license, image cropped and resized). Eventually, a sheet of sea ice formed over the Arctic, and ice sheets spread over northern Asia, Europe, and North America, signaling the start of the most recent ice age. Shallow seas invaded the continent, ultimately covering the whole area until the late Carboniferous. The North Rim is 8000 feet (2438meters) to 9000 feet (2743 meters) above sea level. Is the tropical storm season done for this part of the country? SW Precipitation Precipitation in the Southwest has two distinct seasons. Like the Inside Passage, the weather in Southwest Alaska is heavily influenced by ocean currents and maritime conditions. As of 2010, bark beetles in Arizona and New Mexico have affected more than twice the forest area burned by wildfires in those states. Cycads are a group of seed plants that look superficially similar to palms, but are not closely related to them and do not produce flowers. The monsoon starts to develop in Mexico in June, and moves into the U.S. Southwest in July. For example, the difference in annual mean temperature between Pikes Peak (4302 meters or 14,114 feet) and Las Animas (1188 meters or 3898 feet), only 145 kilometers (90 miles) to the southeast, is equivalent to that between Iceland and southern Florida! Some earlier studies suggested that El Nio may be related to lower JulyAugust rainfall, and La Nia related to higher rainfall, due to large-scale atmospheric circulation changes. During much of the year, the prevailing wind over northwestern Mexico, Arizona, and New Mexico is westerly (blowing from the west) and dry. The warmer the air near the surface is relative to the air above it, the more potential energy it has to move up. In winter, daily temperatures in the southwest are cooler with highs in the 50s and 60s F, and lows in . Ornithopod-type tracks, Powell Fossil Track Block Tracksite, Jurassic Navajo Sandstone, Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, Arizona and Utah. The state's mountainous areas, however, have climate characteristics that more closely follow those found in the Colorado Rockies. Photo credits: 1916 photo from USGS (public domain), 2013 photo by daveynin (flickr,Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license, image resized). Southwest Asia is a region of diverse climates and is generally divided into three main climate types: arid, semiarid, and temperate. A deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus) in Portal, Arizona, 2004. The Central American Isthmus, which today makes up most of Panama and Costa Rica, rose out of the ocean at approximately this time, formed by undersea volcanoes. Climate changepast, present & future: a very short guide. Submitted by rebecca.lindsey on Thu, 09/30/2021 - 10:13. Left:Lake Bonneville's maximal extent during the Pleistocene. Climate change can intensify multiple stresses that push a species past a survival threshold. How would that result in less total JulyAugust rain? Good question! Data for Figures 1 and 3 were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations National Centers for Environmental Information, which maintains a large collection of climate data online at: www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag. Arizona's highest elevations receive an average of 65 to 76 centimeters (25 to 30 inches), with lower areas in the states southwestern portion averaging less than 8 centimeters (3 inches). Some areas were more than2F warmer than average (see Figure 1). Southwest Increased heat, drought, and insect outbreaks, all linked to climate change, have increased wildfires. Photo by Stefan Klein (Wikimedia Commons, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image cropped and resized). Arizona's climate is influenced by three main topographical areas: the high Colorado Plateau (about 15202130 meters or 50007000 feet in elevation), the rugged mountains to the west (27403660 meters or 900012000 feet high), and the low southwestern mountains with desert valleys (as low as 30 meters or 100 feet above sea level). Allmon, W. D., T. A. Smrecak, and R. M. Ross. I did a quick comparison of the average JulyAugust rainfall in the monsoon region with the Nio-3.4 index, using 70 years of records. Water supply is an important issue in the Southwest, and communities will need to adapt to changes in precipitation, snowmelt, and runoff as the climate changes. The summer precipitation total for the CONUS was 9.48 inches, 1.16 inch above average, ranking eighth wettest in the historical record. Center:As warm air rises, cool air sinks. Climate at a glance. North America's position near the equator kept its climate relatively warm. Summer temperatures on the South Rim, at 7000 feet (2134 meters), are especially pleasant from 50 to about 85 F (10s to 20s C). The North American Monsoon is a seasonal change in the atmospheric circulation that occurs as the summer sun heats the continental land mass. The risk of dangerous wildfires is currently very high in parts of the Southwest. Right:Sabalites, a palm leaf. Photo by James St. John (flickr, Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license). Another factor besides latitude and elevation that influences temperature in the Southwest is its arid climate. Photo of USNM P 38052 by Frederic Cochard (Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, public domain). He pointed out that ENSO does influence Pacific tropical storms, which can supply moisture to the monsoon. The inset image is a shaded relief image that shows the edge of the crater on the Yucatn Peninsula with sinkholes in the rock surrounding it. Left (1):Leaves of a seedling. Later in the Jurassic, the climate became more moderate; dune fields were replaced by rivers and floodplains populated by a rich dinosaur fauna (exemplified by the Morrison Formation) and large trees along rivers, streams, and grasslands. Its not over yet, but possible that the overall monsoon rainfall in Arizona will end up being the highest on record. Data from Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and ERSSTv5. One controversial hypothesis proposes that an area of western Coloradoone of the islands that dotted the early Carboniferous seawas, in fact, glaciated. Left:Jaw with teeth. A blog about monitoring and forecasting El Nio, La Nia, and their impacts. The full time series for precipitation and temperature values is shown in Figure 2. Yet this landscape actually supports a vast array of plants and animals, along with millions of people who call the Southwest home. Precipitation forms. Official websites use .gov Facebook Tweet Thanks for visiting the North American Monsoon region with me! Despite the monsoon rainfall this year, much of the region is still in a precipitation deficit. Another player is land-surface feedbackswetter soils provide more moisture to the air through evaporation. Burning those fossil fuels releases carbon into the atmosphere, which warms the Earth. Deer mice are the most important rodent carriers of hantavirus in the Southwest. This project was made possible in part by the Institute of Museum and Library Services (ARPML-250637-OMLS-22).The views, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this website do not necessarily represent those of the Institute of Museum and Library Services. The Southwest's overall average high temperature of 19.2C (66.6F) and average low of 2.8C (37.0F) are indicative of a varied climate, one much less uniform than that found in many other parts of the United States. Image by The High Fin Sperm Whale, created from images by NOAA National Weather Service training material (Wikimedia Commons, public domain). Source:Figure 1 from Erdei et al. It is the largest wildfire that New Mexico has ever witnessed. Temperatures in the southwest region average greater than states up North, because there isn't as much water vapor in upper level winds to screen direct sunlight. In New Mexico, climate is characterized by arid, semiarid, or continental conditions, with light precipitation, low humidity, and abundant sunshine. The rainy season would have been critical for Native Americans for thousands of years, and, for some Native American tribes, continues to be so. Glaciers covered most of the world's southern landmasses, which were located over the South Pole. Dark gray is land, white and light gray are submerged areas. Thanks to the region's high temperatures and low precipitation levels from summer 2020 through summer 2021, the current drought has exceeded the severity of a late-1500s megadrought that previously had been identified by the same authors as the driest in 1,200 years. Changes in atmospheric pressure during the late fall and winter can lead to an accumulation of haze. This project was made possible in part by the Institute of Museum and Library Services (ARPML-250637-OMLS-22).The views, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this website do not necessarily represent those of the Institute of Museum and Library Services. Map of the Gulf of Mexico region before the closure of the Isthmus of Panama. Recent warming within the Southwest has been among the most rapid in the United States, and models predict that the area's climate will continue to warm. In 2020, Colorado ranked 7th in the nation for solar and wind power production, and Arizona and New Mexico ranked 12th and 13th, respectively. Increased heat in the Pacific Ocean has altered the weather patterns of Pacific storms, decreasing snowfall in the mountains of western Utah and Arizona. Check out Toms recent post on the drought in Arizona to understand more about how drought works in this region. At any rate I'd just like to point out a potential clue to your springtime predictability barrier problem. (1) The North American Monsoon, published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society by David Adams and Andrew Comrie, provides a comprehensive overview of the North American Monsoon and related research through the late 20th century. By the start of the Late Cretaceous, this inland sea, called the Western Interior Seaway, divided North America in two; the water was rich with mosasaurs, giant clams, and other marine life. This may be due to the growth of solar energy, and voluntary commitments to reduce emissions made by large utility companies in the state. Precipitation also varies widely. Topics covered on this page: Present climate of the southwestern U.S.; Present temperature; Present precipitation; Severe weather; Regional climate variation; Past climate of the southwestern U.S.; Paleozoic; Mesozoic; Cenozoic; Future climate of the southwestern U.S.; Resources. Summer- The summer in the Southwest region is hot and desert-like. Average is based on 19792020 using CPC Unified data. Indeed, much of this region has low annual rainfall and seasonally high temperatures that contribute to its characteristic desert climate. Bear Lake and Glacier Gorge, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, 2011. 3. The Southwest's overall average high temperature of 19.2C (66.6F) and average low of 2.8C (37.0F) are indicative of a varied climate, one much less uniform than that found in many other parts of the United States. Go to the full list of resources about the climate of the southwestern U.S. Go to the full list of general resources about climate. Extent of the Western Interior Seaway during the Cretaceous Period. Figure by climate.gov. What is the weather like in the Southwest region in summer? This map shows how the average air temperature from 2000 to 2020has differed from the long-term average (18952020). These increased temperatures lead to a whole host of other effects, including a decrease in snowpack, declines in river flow, drier soils from more evaporation, and the increased likelihood of drought and fires. After the end-Cretaceous bolide impact, the climate may have cooled briefly, but it soon rebounded to a warmer state. Map modified from amap by Chiche Ojeda (Wikimedia Commons,Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image cropped and modified). In a broad sense, the Southwests climate is mostly dry and hot, with much of the region characterized as arid. . A couple of field campaigns, including the Arizona-based South-West Monsoon Project (SWAMP, 1993) and the international North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME, 2004), provided a lot of observational data and resulted in a better understanding of the mechanics of the monsoon. In the Silurian and Devonian (430 to 359 million years ago), North America moved north across the equator, and the cycle of warming and cooling was repeated yet again. The state's highest temperatures occur in the northeastern plains, where they can exceed 46C (115F). Sun and storm in Weld County, in the Great Plains region of Colorado, 2015. Photo of USNM 166396 from the Cretaceous Atlas of Ancient Life(Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International license, image cropped). Photo of USNM PAL 165239 by Crinoid Type Project (Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History, public domain). Natural variability, changes in irrigation practices, and other diversions of water for human use can influence certain drought-related measurements. February 2023 ENSO update: the ENSO Blog investigates, part 3, How the pattern of trends across the tropical Pacific Ocean is critical for understanding the future climate, January 2023 La Nia update, and the ENSO Blog investigates, part 2, Albuquerque, NM National Weather Service office, ENSO does influence Pacific tropical storms, Tucson recorded its wettest month ever this July, Monsoon causes deadly flash flood in Arizona, Images of CO2 emissions and transport from the Vulcan project, TreeFlow: Streamflow Reconstructions from Tree Rings. See the Drought indicator for more information about these indices. As average temperatures rise and the Southwest becomes drier with a longer annual fire season (season conducive to the ignition and spread of wildfires), the number and intensity of wildfires is expected to increase. Snowfall will be below normal in most areas that normally receive snow, with the snowiest periods in early to mid-January and early February. NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration). :https://earthathome.org/de/talk-about-climate/, Digital Encyclopedia of Earth Science: What is climate? Data source: National Drought Mitigation Center, 20213Web update: April2021. One especially alarming detail about the Calf Canyon fire is that it was originally set in January 2022. A crinoid (Ibexocrinus lepton) from the Ordovician Kanosh Shale, Millard County, Utah. That's at least one part of a very big climate puzzle crossing that barrier that involves both the ocean and atmosphere. (2015) . (2) In fact, comparing 1955, a year with very similar total rainfall in Tucson as this year, to this year shows temperature between July 1 and August 23 were on average more than 2 degrees F warmer. The Sonoran Desert is located in southwestern Arizona and adjacent regions of California and Mexico. Data source: NOAA, 20214Web update: April2021, Key Points | Background | About the Data | Technical Documentation. North America and Europe are part of Laurasia, and South America and Africa are part of Gondwana. Although there has so far been little regional change in the Southwests annual precipitation, the areas average precipitation is expected to decrease in the south and remain stable or increase in the north. The thunderstorm begins. These changes to rain and snow-pack are already stressing water sources and affecting agriculture. Did La Nia drench the Southwest United States in early winter 2022/23? Las Cruces is located in the Basin and Range region of New Mexico. All rights reserved. Reconstruction created usingPaleomap(by C. Scotese) forGPlates. Light precipitation travels eastward over the Sierra Nevada and Cascade mountains after dropping heavy snowfall in areas of high elevation.